Exposing Islam

The Broken Promise? Islam’s Decline and the Prophecy of Perpetual Dominance

Introduction

In Surah 9:33, the Qur’an declares:

"It is He who has sent His Messenger with guidance and the religion of truth to make it dominant over all religion, even though the disbelievers hate it."
— Qur’an 9:33 (also 61:9, 48:28)

This verse doesn’t merely express a theological aspiration—it presents a divine guarantee of Islam’s supremacy over all other religions. The phrase "to make it prevail over all religion" uses the Arabic liyuzhirahu 'ala al-dini kullihi, implying universal dominance.

But is this prophecy borne out by historical and empirical reality?

Let’s critically evaluate this claim in light of:

the historical rise and decline of Islamic power,
the loss of Islamic territories and influence, and
whether Qur'anic inerrancy survives this test.

1. The Prophecy: Islam Will Be Supreme

The Qur’an repeats the same prophecy three times (9:33, 61:9, and 48:28), emphasizing its importance:

"That He may make it prevail over all other religions."

The plain-sense reading suggests:

Islam will subdue or surpass all rival religions,
and this state of supremacy is not conditional or temporary.

Many classical and modern Islamic scholars treat this verse as an eschatological truth: Islam will always dominate—or eventually dominate—the world.

Yet this is not what we observe.

2. Historical Evidence: Islam’s Rise Was Not Permanent

Initial Expansion: 7th–8th Centuries

Yes, Islam spread rapidly after Muhammad’s death:

Conquering Persia, Byzantine territory, North Africa, and Iberia.
Establishing caliphates stretching from Spain to India.

But then...

The Long Reversal:

732 AD: Muslims defeated at the Battle of Tours in France—halted Western expansion.
1492: The complete fall of Muslim rule in Spain (Al-Andalus).
1683: Ottoman defeat at the Battle of Vienna, marking the end of Islamic expansion into Europe.
19th–20th centuries: Islamic empires colonized and fragmented by European powers.
1924: Abolition of the Caliphate by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk in Turkey.
Today: Once-Islamic regions like the Balkans, parts of India, and large parts of Africa are majority non-Muslim.

Islam, in many places, has lost ground, both territorially and culturally.

3. Islam Is Not Dominant Globally

Global religious demographics (2024 estimates):
- Christianity: ~2.4 billion
- Islam: ~2 billion
- Hinduism: ~1.2 billion
Islam is not the largest religion, nor is it "dominant over all other religions."

In terms of global cultural, economic, scientific, or political dominance, Islamic countries lag significantly behind many secular or Christian-majority nations.

If divine promise ensured eternal or eventual supremacy, why has history decisively contradicted it?

4. Muslim Responses—and Why They Fail

Some apologists argue:

“It refers to spiritual or moral superiority, not military or political dominance.”

But this ignores:

The militaristic context of Surah 9 (Surat al-Tawbah), which is about warfare and conquest.
Historical interpretations by early Islamic scholars, who took it literally as a prophecy of territorial and religious dominance.

“It refers to the end-times when Islam will finally dominate.”

This turns a present-tense, political promise into a vague, postponed eschatological hope. If it wasn’t fulfilled over 1,400 years, it loses all predictive value.

“Islam still grows in numbers.”

While Islam is growing (largely by birthrate), that’s not the same as prevailing over all religions. Numerical growth ≠ prophetic dominance.

5. Contradiction: If Allah Promised Victory, Why the Decline?

The Qur’an also says:

“Allah has promised those who believe and do righteous deeds... He will surely grant them succession in the land...” — Qur’an 24:55

“Allah will protect you from the people.” — Qur’an 5:67

But history shows:

Muslims conquered, but also lost—entire civilizations, lands, and cultures.
The Caliphate was abolished.
Muslim lands are often subject to foreign influence or internal collapse.

If Allah’s promise was guaranteed dominance, what explains centuries of reversals, defeats, and subjugation?

6. The Logical Verdict

If Islam’s divine scripture claims:

Perpetual, global dominance of Islam over all other religions,
And history demonstrates prolonged decline, loss, and stagnation,

Then one of two conclusions must follow:

The prophecy failed, and therefore the Qur’an contains a false prediction.
The prophecy was not meant literally, and thus loses any meaningful testability.

Either outcome undermines the Qur’an's claim to divine, perfect revelation.

A real prophecy must be clear, timely, and fulfilled. This one is clear, long past due, and unfulfilled.

Conclusion: The Promise That History Undid

Surah 9:33 presents an absolute promise: Islam will prevail over every religion. But history speaks otherwise—clearly, loudly, and repeatedly.

The Islamic empire collapsed. Its global dominance never materialized. And today, Islam, while populous, is far from supreme. In truth, Christianity, secularism, and global pluralism dominate the modern world.

If a prophet’s credibility depends on the accuracy of his predictions, then Muhammad’s claim of Islam’s eternal supremacy is not just unfulfilled—it’s falsified.

The verdict is historical, logical, and irreversible: the prophecy failed.